Geopolitical Turmoil and "Stagflation" Risks: COMEX Silver Prices Hit a Decade High [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

Geopolitical tensions, turmoil in Turkey's financial markets, and the risk of "stagflation" drove precious metal prices to new highs this week. COMEX silver hit a high of $35.465/oz, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver price touched a high of 8,517 yuan/kg, marking a new high since June 2024. The US economy remains resilient, and the February PCE data released on Friday night may influence the US Fed to cut interest rates. Silver prices are expected to experience increased short-term volatility, with medium and long-term trends likely to continue fluctuating upward.

【Economic Data】

Positive: US February retail sales month-on-month growth was 0.2%, higher than the previous value but lower than expected; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 7 were 1.448 million barrels, lower than expected and the previous value.

Negative: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 14 were 174.5, higher than expected and the previous value. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15 were 223,000, compared to the previous value of 221,000 and an expectation of 224,000.

【Spot Market】

Silver: Silver prices fluctuated upward this week. In the spot market, premiums and discounts for self pick-up ton-grade national standard silver ingots in Shanghai ranged from -2 yuan/kg to -1 yuan/kg, while large manufacturers' TD premiums were quoted at 0-1 yuan/kg. As month-end and quarter-end approached, some suppliers closed accounts after selling out cargoes with invoices dated this month or pre-sold orders for cargoes with invoices dated next month. Mid-week, downstream sentiment was cautious, with market transactions mainly driven by rigid demand pricing. After silver prices strengthened, market activity noticeably cooled.

PV: The average reference price for solar cell rear-side silver paste this week was 5,359-5,533 yuan/kg; the average reference price for solar cell front-side finger was 8,073-8,334 yuan/kg; and the average reference price for solar cell front-side busbar was 8,023-8,284 yuan/kg.

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